Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

Abstract: I provide a characterisation of belief updating processes that are independent of the how the agent chooses to divide up/process the statistical information that they are using in their updating. These updating processes are in general not Bayesian, but can be interpreted as a re-parameterisation of Bayesian updating. This class of updating rules incorporates over- and under-confidence in the updating and other biases. We also provide sufficient conditions for the  updating process to be Bayesian.