Job Market Talk: Welmar E. Rosado

Do credit rating agencies adjust the timing of their rating announcements as a function of the electoral calendar? I develop a formal model of the political credit rating game, construct a novel database using credit ratings of Mexican states, and estimate panel models for gubernatorial elections in Mexico for 2005-2015. Both formal and empirical results indicate that credit rating agencies delay announcing rating downgrades until after elections, especially when elections are very competitive.