Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Social Sciences Seminar

Abstract: Quotas have become a widely used policy tool to achieve equality in selection processes. We present an experiment designed to study how individuals reason about quotas, and whether quotas shift beliefs in ways that harm the groups they intend to favor. In a setting where candidates are selected based on their math performance, we randomly vary whether there is a women's quota that ensures that at least one-third of the selected candidates are female. We find that both men and women massively over-estimate the effect of this quota on their own and others' selection outcomes. For men who are not selected, the more they overestimate their ex-ante chances of selection, the more likely they are to attribute their failure to the quota. Women who get selected, on the other hand, over-attribute their success to the quota. The women's quota further reduces the chance for previously selected women to get promoted.

Joint work with Philipp Strack.