California Institute of Technology

Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences

Reverse Electoral Business Cycles and the U.S. Housing Market

25 Baxter
Nov 3, 2009 4:00 PM
Brandice Canes-Wrone, Professor of Politics and Public Affairs, Princeton University
The literature on political business cycles suggests various types of electoral cycles, none of economic performance immediately before an election. We argue that for certain sectors of the economy, such a decline will regularly occur because the political uncertainty generated by elections will encourage consumers and businesses to delay investments until the race is over. The relevant sectors are dominated by what others have termed ?irreversible investments,? or investments associated with high costs of reversal. We test this argument, which we name the Reverse Electoral Business Cycle (REC) theory, in the context of the housing sector. Analyzing data on home prices in over 350 U.S. metropolitan areas from 1975 through 2006, we find strong evidence for RECs. These results are corroborated by Zillow.com data on home purchases and a survey on individual preferences over home buying.

Series: Ulric B. and Evelyn L. Bray Seminar in Political Economy
For more information, please phone Ext. 3829 or email edith@hss.caltech.edu

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